A nasty week for the bond market
It was a nasty week for the bond market, with a significant rise in bond yields without this move being triggered by the release of any significant economic data, or...
Read More How Wall St twists the narrative towards rate cuts
You must admire the skill with which Wall Street and the bond market twist a narrative on adverse economic data to spin anything as good news. Seemingly, everything guides the...
Read More The inflation dragon is a long way from dead
Last week’s monthly CPI data confirmed what we have been saying for some time and that is that the inflation dragon is a long way from dead in Australia and/or...
Read More What to expect from stocks in 2025
Will global markets continue to rally in 2025? Below we provide some thoughts on how things could play out. Easing monetary policy cycle should benefit non-U.S. stocksThe recently published...
Read More President Trump 2.0
Trump euphoriaSince the election of U.S. President Donald Trump for a second term, investors have been busy deliberating what it means for the global economy and financial markets. So far...
Read More The large economies the IMF aren’t mentioning might be in trouble
The IMF has stated on many occasions over the past three years that highly indebted countries are at risk of a prolonged period of economic stagnation or a depression, but...
Read More The Fed goes too far
The audacity of Governor Powell, who has now cut rates by 50 basis points just prior to the election and 25 basis points as promised just after the election, was...
Read More What happens if Trump controls all 3 houses of Government?
Last week the US electorate decided between the Republican America first policies as represented by Trump during the campaign and continuation of Bidenomics under Harris. It is worth noting that...
Read More U.S. election result – thoughts on investment implications
Harris Lost and Trump won. We will allow the political analysts to dissect the rest. However, the emotionless, apolitical, atheist data was right again (well...approx. 82% of the time it's 100%...
Read More A clear and present danger for bond markets
Firstly, apologies for not including the risks of a UK budget related bond market meltdown in our list of geopolitical risks a few weeks ago. This risk is now a...
Read More A pulse check on the Australian consumer
The Australian economy, like the global economy to be fair, is muddling through. That is, despite significant increases in interest rates, higher cost of living and doing business, economic growth...
Read More Trump policy theories cause markets to jump
In the absence of any significant economic data the market last week was consumed by Trump economic policy conspiracies. This led the equity market to fresh highs and to a...
Read More Commodities insights – Grains, uranium, and natural gas
Over the past 2 years we have been very much focused on expanding our global network of investors, economists, analysts and industry experts we regularly touch base with so that...
Read More EFG Podcast | Beware the widowmaker trades
After a long hiatus, the EFG podcast returns as Mike and Sam catch up to talk through the big issues and talking points in financial markets right now and what...
Read More Reading between the lines on Aus jobs numbers
Last week’s Australian Labour force data was much stronger than expected but that did not stop some bank economists trying to downplay it by pointing out that a great deal...
Read More What the big economic headlines aren’t telling you
The following Chanticleer article in last weeks AFR was typically light on detail (Why Ray Dalio and Jamie Demon are looking past interest rate cuts to the ‘ticking time bomb’...
Read More How the shock US jobs report hurt the Federal Reserve’s credibility
The huge 254,000 increase (remember that on average a 150,000 monthly increase is normal in an economic recovery period) in non-farm payrolls on Friday night was a shock - even...
Read More What inventories are telling us about where the economy is really at
Australia's only PMI reading is the S&P PMI badged as the Judo Bank PMI. We have found both the S&P and ISM PMI readings have given false signals since the...
Read More China’s bazooka stimulus & the U.S. Fed’s big rate cut
Australia’s negative gearing back in the headlines. Before we get to what is driving markets globally, it is worth highlighting that the sensitive topic of negative gearing is back doing...
Read More What will happen to the hybrid market now?
Hybrids - Yields set to fall The recent APRA paper proposing changes to a bank’s capital structure will reduce the requirement of banks to issue hybrids (Capital Notes or AT1...
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