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News and Market Views
From our expert advisors
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A nasty week for the bond market

It was a nasty week for the bond market, with a significant rise in bond yields without this move being triggered by the release of any significant economic data, or...
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How Wall St twists the narrative towards rate cuts

You must admire the skill with which Wall Street and the bond market twist a narrative on adverse economic data to spin anything as good news. Seemingly, everything guides the...
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The inflation dragon is a long way from dead

Last week’s monthly CPI data confirmed what we have been saying for some time and that is that the inflation dragon is a long way from dead in Australia and/or...
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What to expect from stocks in 2025

Will global markets continue to rally in 2025? Below we provide some thoughts on how things could play out.   Easing monetary policy cycle should benefit non-U.S. stocksThe recently published...
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President Trump 2.0

Trump euphoriaSince the election of U.S. President Donald Trump for a second term, investors have been busy deliberating what it means for the global economy and financial markets. So far...
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The large economies the IMF aren’t mentioning might be in trouble

The IMF has stated on many occasions over the past three years that highly indebted countries are at risk of a prolonged period of economic stagnation or a depression, but...
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The Fed goes too far

The audacity of Governor Powell, who has now cut rates by 50 basis points just prior to the election and 25 basis points as promised just after the election, was...
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What happens if Trump controls all 3 houses of Government?

Last week the US electorate decided between the Republican America first policies as represented by Trump during the campaign and continuation of Bidenomics under Harris. It is worth noting that...
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U.S. election result – thoughts on investment implications

Harris Lost and Trump won. We will allow the political analysts to dissect the rest. However, the emotionless, apolitical, atheist data was right again (well...approx. 82% of the time it's 100%...
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A clear and present danger for bond markets

Firstly, apologies for not including the risks of a UK budget related bond market meltdown in our list of geopolitical risks a few weeks ago. This risk is now a...
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A pulse check on the Australian consumer

The Australian economy, like the global economy to be fair, is muddling through. That is, despite significant increases in interest rates, higher cost of living and doing business, economic growth...
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Trump policy theories cause markets to jump

In the absence of any significant economic data the market last week was consumed by Trump economic policy conspiracies. This led the equity market to fresh highs and to a...
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Commodities insights – Grains, uranium, and natural gas

Over the past 2 years we have been very much focused on expanding our global network of investors, economists, analysts and industry experts we regularly touch base with so that...
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EFG Podcast | Beware the widowmaker trades

After a long hiatus, the EFG podcast returns as Mike and Sam catch up to talk through the big issues and talking points in financial markets right now and what...
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Reading between the lines on Aus jobs numbers

Last week’s Australian Labour force data was much stronger than expected but that did not stop some bank economists trying to downplay it by pointing out that a great deal...
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What the big economic headlines aren’t telling you

The following Chanticleer article in last weeks AFR was typically light on detail (Why Ray Dalio and Jamie Demon are looking past interest rate cuts to the ‘ticking time bomb’...
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How the shock US jobs report hurt the Federal Reserve’s credibility

The huge 254,000 increase (remember that on average a 150,000 monthly increase is normal in an economic recovery period) in non-farm payrolls on Friday night was a shock - even...
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What inventories are telling us about where the economy is really at

Australia's only PMI reading is the S&P PMI badged as the Judo Bank PMI. We have found both the S&P and ISM PMI readings have given false signals since the...
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China’s bazooka stimulus & the U.S. Fed’s big rate cut

Australia’s negative gearing back in the headlines. Before we get to what is driving markets globally, it is worth highlighting that the sensitive topic of negative gearing is back doing...
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What will happen to the hybrid market now?

Hybrids - Yields set to fall The recent APRA paper proposing changes to a bank’s capital structure will reduce the requirement of banks to issue hybrids (Capital Notes or AT1...
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