Trump Vs Harris – Economic scenarios to keep an eye on
A few weeks ago, after the attempted Trump assassination, we began collecting our thoughts on the implications of a Trump Presidential win and/or the Republicans gaining control of the Senate...
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Fast & Furious – Global Stocks Update
It’s been an interesting month or so in global equity markets. However, if all you did was look at the price movements across key global equity markets in our daily...
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The 3 big surprises from last week that
There were 3 surprises last week: ISM manufacturing PMI moving above 50.The 308,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March.The equity market’s reaction to the non-farm payrolls data. Firstly, the US...
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The big risks that come with a housing asset bubble
The last 10 days have certainly been exciting enough, although as capital preservation-focused investment managers we prefer boring, reliable, predictable etc. The market may well have been upset with the...
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Quick Update: Who bought the dip? Iron ore update + more
Who bought the dip? We often hear how retail money often rushes in to buy the dip in scenarios we had earlier this week. Well this time it was different. When...
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The huge week of data did not disappoint | Economic update
Last week we said that it would be a huge week for economic data and certainly it did not disappoint. Chronologically we had the Australian CPI data, BOJ interest rate...
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What if we are NOT in a new “commodities supercycle”?
The narrative around a “new commodities supercycle” has received a lot of airplay in recent years. Commodities have seen a material rally in prices from their 2020 lows, which only...
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What was missed in last weeks jobs data | Economic update
The Australian employment data released last week was unequivocally strong: Employment increased 50.2k (10k expected) for the biggest increase in 4 months. This is something we expected.Full time employment was...
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What needs to happen for rates to be cut
On the face of it the US CPI result that showed a monthly decline (-0.1%) and the year-on-year rate falling to 3% was very good news. The market’s reaction, however,...
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How the Chevron Doctrine decision could shake the environment and investors
The Chevron Doctrine is referring to the US Supreme Court’s decision 40 years ago, giving deference to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) answer or interpretation of environmental laws. It was...
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Why a tsunami of liquidity might be on its way
World financial markets are addicted to liquidity to maintain the price level of assets. In a move reminiscent of the over-lending in the 2008 GFC asset bubble, Congress is voting...
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The inflation genie’s out of its bottle – what will get it back in?
Remarkably there are still a number of market commentators and economists claiming that inflation is still declining. Those that are calling for the RBA to increase rates, however, will be disappointed.
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A quick explainer on Hybrids and why people trade them
ASX hybrid securities are financial instruments listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) that combine features of both equity and debt securities. These hybrids offer investors a blend of the characteristics of...
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APRA to strengthen bank capital requirements and liquidity standards
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) is proposing several changes to strengthen bank capital requirements and liquidity standards in response to the global banking turmoil earlier in 2024. Here are...
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What stock markets should expect from the US Election
The performance of the U.S. stock market during an election year is often a subject of significant interest to investors, economists, and policymakers. Historically, the market’s behavior can be influenced by a variety of factors related to the electoral process, including uncertainty over policy directions, investor sentiment, and the potential for changes in economic policy.
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A Beginner’s Guide to Trading ASX Hybrid Securities
Hybrid securities are a unique asset class that combines features of both debt and equity instruments. For investors looking to diversify their portfolios and potentially earn steady income, ASX hybrid...
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Why the RBA is likely to remain on hold for longer than it should
Interest Rates The rate reversal is gaining momentum with the Fed on a “slower to lower” path if going lower at all. Fed members continue to talk up their pensive...
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Market’s fantasy gets shattered by inflation yet again | Economic update
Last week began quietly enough so as not to wake market participants from their delirium in which “Goldilocks” is real and “immaculate” disinflation is possible. All of this fantasy stuff...
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The false narrative from Wall Street’s greed
The Federal Reserve last week, again, left rates on hold at its January meeting with Powell ruling out a March cut but otherwise keeping his dovish tone. The Federal Reserve...
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Market at a pivot point as inflation surge likely to return in March
Investing is very difficult around key pivot points. If it were easy everyone would be getting double returns consistently. After a short lull in the economy over the past 6...
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