The 90 day tariff imposition freeze announced last week certainly helped to stabilise asset markets, but it did not trigger a material recovery in either the bond market or the...

The markets have now entered an irrational phase with a level of panic that we have not seen since the GFC.  Long term readers of our material will remember, that...

We have constantly communicated to clients since the start of this year, the first quarter / first half of 2025 was going to be volatile (see below) and therefore we had...

Australian Budget Last week we pointed out that the assumptions on which the budget is based are more important than most realise. The Federal Budget assumption of steady unemployment, steady...

In February, this year, investors became increasingly worried about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy. The market recently increased its probability of a recession in the U.S which has...

Last week there was a great deal of media coverage regarding Metrics. We have not studied this company to understand their products well enough to comment, however, we do have some general observations on the private credit sector.

Beyond the obvious impact - a sharp equity market sell-off - there is a more subtle connected impact when the markets fall like a knife.  Single stock volatility, a function...

Interest Rates US bond rates reversed the recent trend over the past month after Chairman Powell mid-Friday indicated the Fed can be patient in determining its next course of action...

We have just had another interesting week dominated by Trumps antics in the White House. Putting aside the Trump theatre, the market appears to have reached the remarkable conclusion that...

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has delivered its first interest rate cut of 0.25% since it began its tightening cycle in 2022. Relative to most of its global peers...

Words fail me when asked to explain what the RBA was thinking, but here is what the media have reported: RBA interest rate cut: governor Michele Bullock says the board...

RBA rate cut? A big week ahead with the market fully priced for a rate cut. If the rate cut does not occur it will because: The RBA is actually...

The Federal Reserve’s Task has certainly been made a lot more difficult by the Trump Administration. Firstly, we perhaps should restate the Federal Reserve mandate that appears to be overlooked...

Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek has dominated headlines over the weekend by disrupting the global tech landscape, raising significant questions about the sustainability of America’s dominance in the AI...

Labour market remains resilientIn line with market expectations, the latest Australian jobs data showed Australia’s unemployment rate at 4.0% as of December 2024. On a positive note, employment increased by...

It was frustrating to see ANZ bank come out with a forecast that the RBA would cut rates in February. The rest of the banking sector seems to have withdrawn...

At the start of every year market strategists from across the globe pen down their forecasts for the year. So, in keeping with this tradition, our first article for 2025...

It was a nasty week for the bond market, with a significant rise in bond yields without this move being triggered by the release of any significant economic data, or...

You must admire the skill with which Wall Street and the bond market twist a narrative on adverse economic data to spin anything as good news. Seemingly, everything guides the...

Last week’s monthly CPI data confirmed what we have been saying for some time and that is that the inflation dragon is a long way from dead in Australia and/or...