How the shock US jobs report hurt the Federal Reserve’s credibility
The huge 254,000 increase (remember that on average a 150,000 monthly increase is normal in an economic recovery period) in non-farm payrolls on Friday night was a shock - even...
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What inventories are telling us about where the economy is really at
Australia's only PMI reading is the S&P PMI badged as the Judo Bank PMI. We have found both the S&P and ISM PMI readings have given false signals since the...
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China’s bazooka stimulus & the U.S. Fed’s big rate cut
Australia’s negative gearing back in the headlines. Before we get to what is driving markets globally, it is worth highlighting that the sensitive topic of negative gearing is back doing...
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What will happen to the hybrid market now?
Hybrids - Yields set to fall The recent APRA paper proposing changes to a bank’s capital structure will reduce the requirement of banks to issue hybrids (Capital Notes or AT1...
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Will the Wall St interest rate junkies get what they want?
The way the markets reacted to the US data releases last week was a little odd. Perhaps the Wall Street Junkies are all blinded by the impending Federal Reserve interest...
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The Yen Carry Trade – Round 2
It should not go un-noticed that there was quite a lot of volatility in the currency markets on Friday. We may be getting an early warning signal of another bout...
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Trump Vs Harris – Economic scenarios to keep an eye on
A few weeks ago, after the attempted Trump assassination, we began collecting our thoughts on the implications of a Trump Presidential win and/or the Republicans gaining control of the Senate...
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Fast & Furious – Global Stocks Update
It’s been an interesting month or so in global equity markets. However, if all you did was look at the price movements across key global equity markets in our daily...
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The 3 big surprises from last week that
There were 3 surprises last week: ISM manufacturing PMI moving above 50.The 308,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March.The equity market’s reaction to the non-farm payrolls data. Firstly, the US...
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The big risks that come with a housing asset bubble
The last 10 days have certainly been exciting enough, although as capital preservation-focused investment managers we prefer boring, reliable, predictable etc. The market may well have been upset with the...
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Quick Update: Who bought the dip? Iron ore update + more
Who bought the dip? We often hear how retail money often rushes in to buy the dip in scenarios we had earlier this week. Well this time it was different. When...
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The huge week of data did not disappoint | Economic update
Last week we said that it would be a huge week for economic data and certainly it did not disappoint. Chronologically we had the Australian CPI data, BOJ interest rate...
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What if we are NOT in a new “commodities supercycle”?
The narrative around a “new commodities supercycle” has received a lot of airplay in recent years. Commodities have seen a material rally in prices from their 2020 lows, which only...
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What was missed in last weeks jobs data | Economic update
The Australian employment data released last week was unequivocally strong: Employment increased 50.2k (10k expected) for the biggest increase in 4 months. This is something we expected.Full time employment was...
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What needs to happen for rates to be cut
On the face of it the US CPI result that showed a monthly decline (-0.1%) and the year-on-year rate falling to 3% was very good news. The market’s reaction, however,...
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How the Chevron Doctrine decision could shake the environment and investors
The Chevron Doctrine is referring to the US Supreme Court’s decision 40 years ago, giving deference to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) answer or interpretation of environmental laws. It was...
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Why a tsunami of liquidity might be on its way
World financial markets are addicted to liquidity to maintain the price level of assets. In a move reminiscent of the over-lending in the 2008 GFC asset bubble, Congress is voting...
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The inflation genie’s out of its bottle – what will get it back in?
Remarkably there are still a number of market commentators and economists claiming that inflation is still declining. Those that are calling for the RBA to increase rates, however, will be disappointed.
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A quick explainer on Hybrids and why people trade them
ASX hybrid securities are financial instruments listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) that combine features of both equity and debt securities. These hybrids offer investors a blend of the characteristics of...
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APRA to strengthen bank capital requirements and liquidity standards
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) is proposing several changes to strengthen bank capital requirements and liquidity standards in response to the global banking turmoil earlier in 2024. Here are...
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