Market’s fantasy gets shattered by inflation yet again | Economic update

Last week began quietly enough so as not to wake market participants from their delirium in which “Goldilocks” is real and “immaculate” disinflation is possible. All of this fantasy stuff was shattered on Tuesday night when the US CPI results were stronger than expected. This was then compounded by the stronger than expected wholesale inflation … Read more

Pivotal week for global markets as the ticking time bomb awaits

The week ahead may prove pivotal for the global bond markets. The US has roughly $33 trillion in Federal debt, at an average interest rate of roughly 3%, which generates around $1 trillion per year of interest cost. Based on current expectations, the Congressional Budget Office guesses that the government deficit from 2024 through 2033 … Read more

The mistakes market strategists are making – What is the magic pudding? | Economic Update

The common theme of market strategists over the past 6 months – basically since the Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank events in March – is that the global economy will face a credit crunch that causes a recession. Even though this has been subsequently and self-evidently shown to be an incorrect forecast, the same … Read more