You must admire the skill with which Wall Street and the bond market twist a narrative on adverse economic data to spin anything as good news. Seemingly, everything guides the Federal Reserve to cutting rates. Friday night’s nonfarm payrolls once again confirmed that the US economy remains robust and in no need of stimulus at … Read more
Last week’s monthly CPI data confirmed what we have been saying for some time and that is that the inflation dragon is a long way from dead in Australia and/or the inflation genie is still out of the bottle and about to destroy the village. This forced the last of the major banks ANZ, Westpac, … Read more
Will global markets continue to rally in 2025? Below we provide some thoughts on how things could play out. Easing monetary policy cycle should benefit non-U.S. stocksThe recently published December edition of the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey highlighted that there is an expectation that the U.S. election results will now see a slower … Read more
Trump euphoriaSince the election of U.S. President Donald Trump for a second term, investors have been busy deliberating what it means for the global economy and financial markets. So far markets have reacted very positively to President Trump’s decisive win against Kamala Haris, with Republicans gaining control of both houses. President Trump campaigned hard on … Read more
The IMF has stated on many occasions over the past three years that highly indebted countries are at risk of a prolonged period of economic stagnation or a depression, but has never actually named the US, Japan, or France. This is not to say that these countries are not as vulnerable as Spain, Italy, or … Read more
The audacity of Governor Powell, who has now cut rates by 50 basis points just prior to the election and 25 basis points as promised just after the election, was laid bare (naked really) last week when he said that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates. “The economy is not sending any … Read more
Last week the US electorate decided between the Republican America first policies as represented by Trump during the campaign and continuation of Bidenomics under Harris. It is worth noting that Bidenomics was still the Obama economic approach which was based on rewiring the US economy so that it had a much larger government sector and … Read more
Harris Lost and Trump won. We will allow the political analysts to dissect the rest. However, the emotionless, apolitical, atheist data was right again (well…approx. 82% of the time it’s 100% right!). On occasions the S&P 500 index fell the month before the U.S. election (i.e. October), the incumbent party lost the White House on most … Read more
Firstly, apologies for not including the risks of a UK budget related bond market meltdown in our list of geopolitical risks a few weeks ago. This risk is now a clear and present danger for the bond markets. The UK budget announced last Wednesday represents a seminal shift in the way a Western democratic … Read more
The Australian economy, like the global economy to be fair, is muddling through. That is, despite significant increases in interest rates, higher cost of living and doing business, economic growth remains positive. Although GDP growth continues to moderate. A key part of the Australian economy is the consumer and below we discuss some indicators related … Read more