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News and Market Views
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U.S. election result – thoughts on investment implications

Harris Lost and Trump won. We will allow the political analysts to dissect the rest. However, the emotionless, apolitical, atheist data was right again (well...approx. 82% of the time it's 100%...
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A clear and present danger for bond markets

Firstly, apologies for not including the risks of a UK budget related bond market meltdown in our list of geopolitical risks a few weeks ago. This risk is now a...
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A pulse check on the Australian consumer

The Australian economy, like the global economy to be fair, is muddling through. That is, despite significant increases in interest rates, higher cost of living and doing business, economic growth...
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Trump policy theories cause markets to jump

In the absence of any significant economic data the market last week was consumed by Trump economic policy conspiracies. This led the equity market to fresh highs and to a...
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Commodities insights – Grains, uranium, and natural gas

Over the past 2 years we have been very much focused on expanding our global network of investors, economists, analysts and industry experts we regularly touch base with so that...
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EFG Podcast | Beware the widowmaker trades

After a long hiatus, the EFG podcast returns as Mike and Sam catch up to talk through the big issues and talking points in financial markets right now and what...
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Reading between the lines on Aus jobs numbers

Last week’s Australian Labour force data was much stronger than expected but that did not stop some bank economists trying to downplay it by pointing out that a great deal...
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What the big economic headlines aren’t telling you

The following Chanticleer article in last weeks AFR was typically light on detail (Why Ray Dalio and Jamie Demon are looking past interest rate cuts to the ‘ticking time bomb’...
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How the shock US jobs report hurt the Federal Reserve’s credibility

The huge 254,000 increase (remember that on average a 150,000 monthly increase is normal in an economic recovery period) in non-farm payrolls on Friday night was a shock - even...
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What inventories are telling us about where the economy is really at

Australia's only PMI reading is the S&P PMI badged as the Judo Bank PMI. We have found both the S&P and ISM PMI readings have given false signals since the...
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China’s bazooka stimulus & the U.S. Fed’s big rate cut

Australia’s negative gearing back in the headlines. Before we get to what is driving markets globally, it is worth highlighting that the sensitive topic of negative gearing is back doing...
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What will happen to the hybrid market now?

Hybrids - Yields set to fall The recent APRA paper proposing changes to a bank’s capital structure will reduce the requirement of banks to issue hybrids (Capital Notes or AT1...
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Will the Wall St interest rate junkies get what they want?

The way the markets reacted to the US data releases last week was a little odd. Perhaps the Wall Street Junkies are all blinded by the impending Federal Reserve interest...
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The Yen Carry Trade – Round 2

It should not go un-noticed that there was quite a lot of volatility in the currency markets on Friday. We may be getting an early warning signal of another bout...
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Trump Vs Harris – Economic scenarios to keep an eye on

A few weeks ago, after the attempted Trump assassination, we began collecting our thoughts on the implications of a Trump Presidential win and/or the Republicans gaining control of the Senate...
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Fast & Furious – Global Stocks Update

It’s been an interesting month or so in global equity markets. However, if all you did was look at the price movements across key global equity markets in our daily...
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The 3 big surprises from last week that

There were 3 surprises last week: ISM manufacturing PMI moving above 50.The 308,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March.The equity market’s reaction to the non-farm payrolls data. Firstly, the US...
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The big risks that come with a housing asset bubble

The last 10 days have certainly been exciting enough, although as capital preservation-focused investment managers we prefer boring, reliable, predictable etc. The market may well have been upset with the...
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Quick Update: Who bought the dip? Iron ore update + more

Who bought the dip? We often hear how retail money often rushes in to buy the dip in scenarios we had earlier this week. Well this time it was different. When...
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The huge week of data did not disappoint | Economic update

Last week we said that it would be a huge week for economic data and certainly it did not disappoint. Chronologically we had the Australian CPI data, BOJ interest rate...
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