IEA new bullish oil demand forecasts
Over the past 5-10 years the predictions for oil have been dire. However, a recent update from a leader in all things energy – International Energy Agency (IEA) – caught our attention. It appears the IEA is no longer certain about the peak in oil demand…in case you missed it, IEA is now potentially forecasting a rise in global oil demand out to 2050, whereas prior scenarios called for a peak in oil demand well right about now?
Chart below – IEA has moved from theoretical forecasting back to Current Policy Scenario in trying to estimate the direction of oil… predicting the future can be hard…and don’t underestimate how many investors and sell side analysts (including us in the previous life before Banyantree) were using these forecasts in our models.
Banyantree’s Global Core Equity Strategy – style neutral, benchmark unaware and focused on delivering core returns through the cycle – has maintained its position in key global energy stocks. Over the past five years, these stocks have done extremely well in both absolute & relative terms over this period. In AUD terms (5 yrs to 23 Sept-25):
TotalEnergies SE (TTE FP) +21.6% p.a.
BL Plc (BP/ LN) +22.2% p.a.
versus
MSCI ACWI +15.5% p.a.
Who is going to power the AI demand?
You have heard recently, OpenAI and Nvidia announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems. If all goes to play OpenAI will deploy 10GW of AI data centers with NVDA, those data centers will run on Blackwell or Rubin GPUs. 10GW of data centers will hold between 6 and 7ml GPUs.
FYI – Key equipment, content per megawatt, and global vendors that go into a data centre
How are they going to power these significant growth plans? Interesting points:
+ 10 gigawatts (GW) of power would be equivalent to about 10 standard nuclear power plants, as a typical nuclear power plant or reactor produces around 1 gigawatt on average.
+ 10 gigawatts (GW) would equal approximately 10 average-sized natural gas power plants, or roughly 5 to 10 large natural gas power plants depending on their individual capacities. For example, a 1,000 megawatt (MW) (1 GW) combined cycle natural gas plant is a common size for a single plant.
+ 10 gigawatts (GW) is equivalent to 2,940 utility-scale wind turbines if using the example from the Department of Energy (DOE) which states 1 GW equals 294 turbines
We are exposed to several of these themes in our global equity strategy whilst maintaining ample diversification.
