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News and Market Views
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When are we going to get a market correction?

The markets have made a remarkable recovery from their “Liberation Day” induced sell-off in early April, with the S&P 500 Index up +28.3%, S&P/ASX 200 Index up +16.6% and MSCI...
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The increasingly noisy US jobs data

Although the headlines will be all about the US jobs data it was probably a combination of factors that triggered the big fall in US yields on Friday night. In...
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The RBA should cut the cash rate in August

The latest Australian inflation data is only likely to increase investors’ expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the RBA cash rate further in the current easing...
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What happens once inventory buildup is unwound?

The only real or hard bit of economic data last week was the US durable goods data. For economists, who understand economic theory, the durable goods data is a key...
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Why inflation might be returning sooner than expected

The 90-day BBSW rate surged 19bps to 3.76% after the RBA decision to leave rates on hold at the July meeting and finished the week at 3.72%. Some market participants...
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All eyes on the labour market

US Economic Outlook Last week's non-farm payrolls number of 147,000 was far in excess of the market's expectations of 110,000. Ordinarily we would not see this as significant for the...
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European equities – Maybe this time?

European equities are increasingly gaining favour among global investors at the expense of U.S. equities. Funds flow data and recent performance point to this fact. The question is whether this...
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Who loses the most from the Iran conflict?

The US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities on Sunday will no doubt impact markets on Monday, but it could have been worse. The US has targeted only the 3 main...
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Geopolitics, oil markets, and the Santos takeover bid

Energy markets are receiving fair bit of airplay over the past few days as tensions in the Middle East have materially escalated and this morning one of Australia's largest companies, Oil...
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A market of irrational exuberance

Last week's US CPI was largely ignored by the markets - just as well. The data is currently distorted by the inventory tariff related build up and the ongoing tariff...
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It’s all overvalued

There has been a lot of commentary from all sources about the correlation between the USD, equity and bond markets in April. Several Fed Governors, market strategists and large investors...
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The trade that may dominate all market outcomes this year

The carry trade between USD and JPY has been a very popular trade over the past decade. As the interest rate differential between the currencies was significant, it enabled investors...
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Inflation isn’t dead yet

It is worth remembering, that economic forecasts from the RBA and the major banks that inflation will keep falling, are from the same economists that did not predict that inflation...
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RBA delivers another rate cut…

The RBA delivered a widely expected 0.25% cut to the cash rate at its recent monetary policy meeting, taking the official RBA cash rate to 3.85%. The Board noted the...
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US dollar exodus

he exodus out of the US dollar has begun. There are three factors at play...
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Tariff rhetoric reaches the absurd

Last week calm returned to markets although there has been no real change in US policy outcomes, yet. We are 30 days into the 90-day pause and constructive developments around...
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Why does no one seem concerned about government debt?

In recent decades, national debt levels have consistently risen across many countries, prompting ongoing debate over whether this trend poses a timebomb threat or simply reflects a manageable economic strategy....
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Tariff standoff with China unsustainable

Tariffs uncertainty – need to do a deal Unfortunately, investors hoping for a quick resolution to tariff discussions so that markets and businesses can ultimately gain some level of certainty...
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Are Australian stocks starting to outshine the US?

Recent months have seen a noticeable flight from U.S. stocks, driven by investor fears over the resurgence of Trump-era economic policies. With trade tensions flaring and tariff ramifications starting to be...
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A time to remain cautious | Economic update

The 90 day tariff imposition freeze announced last week certainly helped to stabilise asset markets, but it did not trigger a material recovery in either the bond market or the...
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