Welcome to the January 2026 letter. In our view, investors should brace for a relatively volatile first six months. Below we discuss four potential headwinds for the markets in the...

In January 2025 we set out five “controversial, non-consensus” calls for the year ahead. With most of the year now behind us and our 2026 outlook in the works, it’s...

If the financial landscape shifts so that retail savings migrate from traditional fractional-reserve banks to stablecoins backed 100% by government securities, the global economy faces a fundamental change in how...

There is growing evidence of increasing populism in the world today. We would argue President Donald Trump was elected on both occasions in part due to this anti-politician narrative. Then...

APRA have recently released two papers that refer to the rise in private residential lending growth in the September quarter. System Risk Outlook - November 2025 | APRA APRA to...

Hopes of further RBA interest rate cuts copped a big blow after the latest inflation data came in stronger than expected. Reacceleration of core CPI. Australian CPI was up +1.3%...

‘Stablecoins’ have become one of the most prominent innovations in the cryptocurrency space, offering a solution to the volatility that often hinders the wider adoption of digital assets. These digital...

A technical breakout The S&P 500 on Friday made a technical breakout with a gap up that broke the previous high at 6764. Investors now have an entry point with...

QUESTION 1 - Oil markets are in contango. What do you make of this - excess supply concerns or demand concerns which, reading between the lines, could be signaling increasing...

Just ahead of the anniversary of black Monday the markets had a little volatility last week with Trump threatening 100% new tariff on China disingenuously and at a far more...

A market correction had to come at some point! Both the S&P 500 (-2.7%) and NASDAQ (-3.5%) sold off aggressively on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened China with...

U.S. President’s approval rating As investors start to look towards 2026, there is a key event which will take place toward the end of 2026 – the U.S. midterm election....

IEA new bullish oil demand forecastsOver the past 5-10 years the predictions for oil have been dire. However, a recent update from a leader in all things energy - International...

It has been a busy month and half with companies from around the world (with a particular focus on the U.S.) and Australia providing an earnings update. Perhaps more importantly...

CSL is well owned across Australian investor portfolios, including Banyantree Australian Core Equity strategy. The recent share price decline has caused us as much angst as anyway else. CSL's recent share...

On gold, the question we are not asking is whether the price will go up or down and concerns around the price being at an all time high. The question...

The US bond market was awoken from its delirium last week by the surge in the core PPI data. The index showed a 0.9% increase in July made of: Services...

The markets have made a remarkable recovery from their “Liberation Day” induced sell-off in early April, with the S&P 500 Index up +28.3%, S&P/ASX 200 Index up +16.6% and MSCI...

Although the headlines will be all about the US jobs data it was probably a combination of factors that triggered the big fall in US yields on Friday night. In...

The latest Australian inflation data is only likely to increase investors’ expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the RBA cash rate further in the current easing...