Last week's US CPI was largely ignored by the markets - just as well. The data is currently distorted by the inventory tariff related build up and the ongoing tariff...

There has been a lot of commentary from all sources about the correlation between the USD, equity and bond markets in April. Several Fed Governors, market strategists and large investors...

The carry trade between USD and JPY has been a very popular trade over the past decade. As the interest rate differential between the currencies was significant, it enabled investors...

It is worth remembering, that economic forecasts from the RBA and the major banks that inflation will keep falling, are from the same economists that did not predict that inflation...

The RBA delivered a widely expected 0.25% cut to the cash rate at its recent monetary policy meeting, taking the official RBA cash rate to 3.85%. The Board noted the...

he exodus out of the US dollar has begun. There are three factors at play...

Last week calm returned to markets although there has been no real change in US policy outcomes, yet. We are 30 days into the 90-day pause and constructive developments around...

In recent decades, national debt levels have consistently risen across many countries, prompting ongoing debate over whether this trend poses a timebomb threat or simply reflects a manageable economic strategy....

Tariffs uncertainty – need to do a deal Unfortunately, investors hoping for a quick resolution to tariff discussions so that markets and businesses can ultimately gain some level of certainty...

Recent months have seen a noticeable flight from U.S. stocks, driven by investor fears over the resurgence of Trump-era economic policies. With trade tensions flaring and tariff ramifications starting to be...

The 90 day tariff imposition freeze announced last week certainly helped to stabilise asset markets, but it did not trigger a material recovery in either the bond market or the...

The markets have now entered an irrational phase with a level of panic that we have not seen since the GFC.  Long term readers of our material will remember, that...

We have constantly communicated to clients since the start of this year, the first quarter / first half of 2025 was going to be volatile (see below) and therefore we had...

Australian Budget Last week we pointed out that the assumptions on which the budget is based are more important than most realise. The Federal Budget assumption of steady unemployment, steady...

In February, this year, investors became increasingly worried about the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy. The market recently increased its probability of a recession in the U.S which has...

Last week there was a great deal of media coverage regarding Metrics. We have not studied this company to understand their products well enough to comment, however, we do have some general observations on the private credit sector.

Beyond the obvious impact - a sharp equity market sell-off - there is a more subtle connected impact when the markets fall like a knife.  Single stock volatility, a function...

Interest Rates US bond rates reversed the recent trend over the past month after Chairman Powell mid-Friday indicated the Fed can be patient in determining its next course of action...

We have just had another interesting week dominated by Trumps antics in the White House. Putting aside the Trump theatre, the market appears to have reached the remarkable conclusion that...

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has delivered its first interest rate cut of 0.25% since it began its tightening cycle in 2022. Relative to most of its global peers...