EFG Podcast | Beware the widowmaker trades
After a long hiatus, the EFG podcast returns as Mike and Sam catch up to talk through the big issues and talking points in financial markets right now and what...
Read More Reading between the lines on Aus jobs numbers
Last week’s Australian Labour force data was much stronger than expected but that did not stop some bank economists trying to downplay it by pointing out that a great deal...
Read More What the big economic headlines aren’t telling you
The following Chanticleer article in last weeks AFR was typically light on detail (Why Ray Dalio and Jamie Demon are looking past interest rate cuts to the ‘ticking time bomb’...
Read More How the shock US jobs report hurt the Federal Reserve’s credibility
The huge 254,000 increase (remember that on average a 150,000 monthly increase is normal in an economic recovery period) in non-farm payrolls on Friday night was a shock - even...
Read More What inventories are telling us about where the economy is really at
Australia's only PMI reading is the S&P PMI badged as the Judo Bank PMI. We have found both the S&P and ISM PMI readings have given false signals since the...
Read More China’s bazooka stimulus & the U.S. Fed’s big rate cut
Australia’s negative gearing back in the headlines. Before we get to what is driving markets globally, it is worth highlighting that the sensitive topic of negative gearing is back doing...
Read More What will happen to the hybrid market now?
Hybrids - Yields set to fall The recent APRA paper proposing changes to a bank’s capital structure will reduce the requirement of banks to issue hybrids (Capital Notes or AT1...
Read More Will the Wall St interest rate junkies get what they want?
The way the markets reacted to the US data releases last week was a little odd. Perhaps the Wall Street Junkies are all blinded by the impending Federal Reserve interest...
Read More The Yen Carry Trade – Round 2
It should not go un-noticed that there was quite a lot of volatility in the currency markets on Friday. We may be getting an early warning signal of another bout...
Read More Trump Vs Harris – Economic scenarios to keep an eye on
A few weeks ago, after the attempted Trump assassination, we began collecting our thoughts on the implications of a Trump Presidential win and/or the Republicans gaining control of the Senate...
Read More Fast & Furious – Global Stocks Update
It’s been an interesting month or so in global equity markets. However, if all you did was look at the price movements across key global equity markets in our daily...
Read More The 3 big surprises from last week that
There were 3 surprises last week: ISM manufacturing PMI moving above 50.The 308,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March.The equity market’s reaction to the non-farm payrolls data. Firstly, the US...
Read More The big risks that come with a housing asset bubble
The last 10 days have certainly been exciting enough, although as capital preservation-focused investment managers we prefer boring, reliable, predictable etc. The market may well have been upset with the...
Read More Quick Update: Who bought the dip? Iron ore update + more
Who bought the dip? We often hear how retail money often rushes in to buy the dip in scenarios we had earlier this week. Well this time it was different. When...
Read More The huge week of data did not disappoint | Economic update
Last week we said that it would be a huge week for economic data and certainly it did not disappoint. Chronologically we had the Australian CPI data, BOJ interest rate...
Read More What if we are NOT in a new “commodities supercycle”?
The narrative around a “new commodities supercycle” has received a lot of airplay in recent years. Commodities have seen a material rally in prices from their 2020 lows, which only...
Read More What was missed in last weeks jobs data | Economic update
The Australian employment data released last week was unequivocally strong: Employment increased 50.2k (10k expected) for the biggest increase in 4 months. This is something we expected.Full time employment was...
Read More What needs to happen for rates to be cut
On the face of it the US CPI result that showed a monthly decline (-0.1%) and the year-on-year rate falling to 3% was very good news. The market’s reaction, however,...
Read More How the Chevron Doctrine decision could shake the environment and investors
The Chevron Doctrine is referring to the US Supreme Court’s decision 40 years ago, giving deference to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) answer or interpretation of environmental laws. It was...
Read More Why a tsunami of liquidity might be on its way
World financial markets are addicted to liquidity to maintain the price level of assets. In a move reminiscent of the over-lending in the 2008 GFC asset bubble, Congress is voting...
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