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The trade that may dominate all market outcomes this year

June 2, 2025 by Arculus Funds Management

The carry trade between USD and JPY has been a very popular trade over the past decade. As the interest rate differential between the currencies was significant, it enabled investors to lock about 5% of annual returns based on this interest arbitrage. The carry trade defines the process of borrowing funds from a low-yielding currency … Read more

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The BIG reason the RBA won’t be cutting rates soon

January 20, 2025 by Arculus Funds Management

It was frustrating to see ANZ bank come out with a forecast that the RBA would cut rates in February. The rest of the banking sector seems to have withdrawn to the first cut now being in May when the new RBA interest setting board will be making the decision. Given the make-up of this … Read more

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Inflation will be higher for longer than the market expects | Economic Update

October 2, 2023 by Arculus Funds Management

Another rough week for the now very stale bond bulls that show a startling level of misunderstanding of inflation. The reality is something we have written about many, many times since our first early warning in June 2020 that the unique pandemic shutdown conditions had the potential to let the inflation genie out of the … Read more

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