U.S. President’s approval rating As investors start to look towards 2026, there is a key event which will take place toward the end of 2026 – the U.S. midterm election. Leading up to and the result of this midterm election could have a material impact on the economy and financial markets. U.S. President Donald Trump … Read more
IEA new bullish oil demand forecastsOver the past 5-10 years the predictions for oil have been dire. However, a recent update from a leader in all things energy – International Energy Agency (IEA) – caught our attention. It appears the IEA is no longer certain about the peak in oil demand…in case you missed it, … Read more
It has been a busy month and half with companies from around the world (with a particular focus on the U.S.) and Australia providing an earnings update. Perhaps more importantly investors were interested in hearing managements’ commentary on the current trading environment and their twelve-month outlook statements. While share prices may bounce around over the … Read more
CSL is well owned across Australian investor portfolios, including Banyantree Australian Core Equity strategy. The recent share price decline has caused us as much angst as anyway else. CSL’s recent share price decline and overall trend over the past 1 year (price down from ~$310 to $220) has raised a few questions. In our report (attached … Read more
On gold, the question we are not asking is whether the price will go up or down and concerns around the price being at an all time high. The question for us is more a portfolio construction and diversification one. Do we believe gold [as perceived by the market (remember: in our view history rhymes … Read more
The US bond market was awoken from its delirium last week by the surge in the core PPI data. The index showed a 0.9% increase in July made of: Services 1.1%. Goods 0.7%. This lifted the 12-month PPI to an increase of3.3% from its June 2.4% reading. The message was that, in aggregate, companies are … Read more
The markets have made a remarkable recovery from their “Liberation Day” induced sell-off in early April, with the S&P 500 Index up +28.3%, S&P/ASX 200 Index up +16.6% and MSCI All Country World Index (AUD) up +17.3% from their April lows (at the time of writing). If we look across the global equity complex, apart … Read more
Although the headlines will be all about the US jobs data it was probably a combination of factors that triggered the big fall in US yields on Friday night. In no particular order here is the Friday night list: Non-farm payrolls plus 74,000 jobs added in July. June payrolls were revised down from 147,000 to … Read more
The latest Australian inflation data is only likely to increase investors’ expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the RBA cash rate further in the current easing cycle. Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) for all groups increased +0.7% for the June 2025 quarter or +2.1% on an annualised basis. The more closely … Read more
The only real or hard bit of economic data last week was the US durable goods data. For economists, who understand economic theory, the durable goods data is a key forward indicator because the ex-defence durable goods data is a good proxy for business spending plans (Capex). Last month ex-defence durable goods declined 0.7% when … Read more