Welcome to the January 2026 letter. In our view, investors should brace for a relatively volatile first six months. Below we discuss four potential headwinds for the markets in the first half. U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality of tariffs. The U.S. Supreme Court is currently weighing a challenge to U.S. President Donald … Read more
In January 2025 we set out five “controversial, non-consensus” calls for the year ahead. With most of the year now behind us and our 2026 outlook in the works, it’s a good time to look back at those calls, what actually happened, and what mattered for portfolios including where we were early, where we were … Read more
If the financial landscape shifts so that retail savings migrate from traditional fractional-reserve banks to stablecoins backed 100% by government securities, the global economy faces a fundamental change in how money is created. While often viewed simply as a new payment technology, this shift would sharply reduce the private sector’s ability to create credit and … Read more
There is growing evidence of increasing populism in the world today. We would argue President Donald Trump was elected on both occasions in part due to this anti-politician narrative. Then more recently one of the most recognisable cities and potentially a poster child for capitalism New York elected Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani as Mayor. His … Read more
APRA have recently released two papers that refer to the rise in private residential lending growth in the September quarter. System Risk Outlook – November 2025 | APRA APRA to limit high debt-to-income home loans to constrain riskier lending | APRA The October Private Credit growth released last week showed another increase from the September … Read more
Hopes of further RBA interest rate cuts copped a big blow after the latest inflation data came in stronger than expected. Reacceleration of core CPI. Australian CPI was up +1.3% QoQ in 3Q25, which was above consensus estimates at +1.1%. On an annualised basis, inflation is up +3.2%, which is now above RBA’s target range … Read more
‘Stablecoins’ have become one of the most prominent innovations in the cryptocurrency space, offering a solution to the volatility that often hinders the wider adoption of digital assets. These digital currencies are typically pegged to a fiat currency (such as the US dollar), making them more stable and usable for everyday transactions. Even in a … Read more
A technical breakout The S&P 500 on Friday made a technical breakout with a gap up that broke the previous high at 6764. Investors now have an entry point with a set strategy opportunity. Buy the S&P 500 at market. Set a hard stop loss at a break of 6764. Ride the move higher with … Read more
QUESTION 1 – Oil markets are in contango. What do you make of this – excess supply concerns or demand concerns which, reading between the lines, could be signaling increasing recession risks? Firstly, we consider many indicators when looking for cues on impending recession risks and of course oil is a widely followed one. With … Read more
Just ahead of the anniversary of black Monday the markets had a little volatility last week with Trump threatening 100% new tariff on China disingenuously and at a far more serious level the ongoing impact of the First Brands collapse. First brands collapse ensnares Jeffries. Milenium. UBS. Is it the canary in the coal mine? … Read more
