Last week began quietly enough so as not to wake market participants from their delirium in which “Goldilocks” is real and “immaculate” disinflation is possible. All of this fantasy stuff was shattered on Tuesday night when the US CPI results were stronger than expected. This was then compounded by the stronger than expected wholesale inflation … Read more
The Federal Reserve last week, again, left rates on hold at its January meeting with Powell ruling out a March cut but otherwise keeping his dovish tone. The Federal Reserve has been able to move to a hold status for 3 reasons: The rise in the USD while other currencies fell will see a shift … Read more
Investing is very difficult around key pivot points. If it were easy everyone would be getting double returns consistently. After a short lull in the economy over the past 6 months, we expect that some time in the March quarter we will begin to see inflation, or at least the factors that will lead to … Read more
During November the market consensus shifted towards the FOMC and ECB remaining on hold throughout 2024. This reflects a forecast that inflation will continue to deflate while unemployment remains low, and the economy keeps growing but at a slow pace. This is the “Goldilocks” scenario. The alternative view is that inflation will begin to rise … Read more
We were surprised last week by the reaction to the slightly better than expected US CPI monthly report. In aggregate the headline month-on-month CPI rate was flat versus a 0.1% forecast and core inflation was 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. A great deal of care needs to be taken when interpreting monthly data because inflation readings … Read more
The week ahead may prove pivotal for the global bond markets. The US has roughly $33 trillion in Federal debt, at an average interest rate of roughly 3%, which generates around $1 trillion per year of interest cost. Based on current expectations, the Congressional Budget Office guesses that the government deficit from 2024 through 2033 … Read more
Interest Rates The markets were caught by a triple surprise last week. Firstly, the Treasury opted to issue less 10 and 30-year bonds and more 3-5 year bonds for its refinancing, then the ISM manufacturing and services PMI data was weaker, and finally the non-farm payrolls were weaker than expected. This brought about what looks … Read more
Last week we travelled to Hong Kong to attend a global investment conference and conducted several meetings with – Hong Kong listed companies (some of the largest companies with not only exposure to Chinese markets but assets in developed markets), buy side investors, strategists, fund managers and bottom up equity analysts. These trips support our … Read more
The markets, at both a bond and currency level, are now forecasting that the RBA has fallen behind the curve with its interest rate moves. The RBA is now expected to increase rates by 25bps at the November meeting and then remain on hold until the February meeting, when a new RBA interest setting board … Read more
The common theme of market strategists over the past 6 months – basically since the Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank events in March – is that the global economy will face a credit crunch that causes a recession. Even though this has been subsequently and self-evidently shown to be an incorrect forecast, the same … Read more