The US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Sunday will no doubt impact markets on Monday, but it could have been worse. The US has targeted only the 3 main uranium enrichment facilities and perhaps forestalled Israel targeting Iran’s oil production and shipping infrastructure. Macro Commentary One of the less obvious byproducts of the Israel … Read more
Energy markets are receiving fair bit of airplay over the past few days as tensions in the Middle East have materially escalated and this morning one of Australia’s largest companies, Oil & Gas producer Santos Ltd (STO), has received an all-cash bid of $8.89 per share from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (a state-owned company). Let’s … Read more
Last week’s US CPI was largely ignored by the markets – just as well. The data is currently distorted by the inventory tariff related build up and the ongoing tariff uncertainty. It is our view that, fundamentally, US markets and by association all global asset markets are rapidly approaching a day of reckoning. None of … Read more
There has been a lot of commentary from all sources about the correlation between the USD, equity and bond markets in April. Several Fed Governors, market strategists and large investors have all given their opinions on why this occurred. They are all desperately trying to make something simple complex. The USD, Equity Markets and Bond … Read more
It is worth remembering, that economic forecasts from the RBA and the major banks that inflation will keep falling, are from the same economists that did not predict that inflation would rise in 2022. Arculus was then one of the few lone voices in the forest pointing out from late 2020 that all the ingredients … Read more
The RBA delivered a widely expected 0.25% cut to the cash rate at its recent monetary policy meeting, taking the official RBA cash rate to 3.85%. The Board noted the following in a statement accompanying the decision: “The Board judged that the risks to inflation have become more balanced. Inflation is in the target band … Read more
Last week calm returned to markets although there has been no real change in US policy outcomes, yet. We are 30 days into the 90-day pause and constructive developments around trade policy negotiations have been piecemeal and provisional at best. Meanwhile, the US and China have been more restrained insofar as there has been no … Read more
In recent decades, national debt levels have consistently risen across many countries, prompting ongoing debate over whether this trend poses a timebomb threat or simply reflects a manageable economic strategy. Supporters of sustained government borrowing argue that it enables investments in growth, public services, and crisis response, especially when interest rates are low and inflation … Read more
Tariffs uncertainty – need to do a deal Unfortunately, investors hoping for a quick resolution to tariff discussions so that markets and businesses can ultimately gain some level of certainty isn’t likely to be forthcoming any time soon. U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on 2nd April, with significantly higher tariffs on some … Read more
