Words fail me when asked to explain what the RBA was thinking, but here is what the media have reported: RBA interest rate cut: governor Michele Bullock says the board weighed up both sides. But did the Reserve Bank deliver the first cut in more than four years because it should have, or because it … Read more
RBA rate cut? A big week ahead with the market fully priced for a rate cut. If the rate cut does not occur it will because: The RBA is actually an independent central bank and so does not care if the Albanese government is re-elected. The RBA uses its trimmed mean measure of inflation when … Read more
The Federal Reserve’s Task has certainly been made a lot more difficult by the Trump Administration. Firstly, we perhaps should restate the Federal Reserve mandate that appears to be overlooked by most analysts and commentators that look to the Federal Reserve as having the ability and responsibility to cure all. Federal Reserve Mandate is for … Read more
Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek has dominated headlines over the weekend by disrupting the global tech landscape, raising significant questions about the sustainability of America’s dominance in the AI industry. DeepSeek’s latest AI model has grabbed attention due to its cost-effectiveness and ability to run on less advanced hardware than US equivalents, painting a … Read more
Labour market remains resilientIn line with market expectations, the latest Australian jobs data showed Australia’s unemployment rate at 4.0% as of December 2024. On a positive note, employment increased by 56,300 which was well ahead of expectations of 15,000, however this was driven by part-time jobs which may be perceived by the market as lower … Read more
At the start of every year market strategists from across the globe pen down their forecasts for the year. So, in keeping with this tradition, our first article for 2025 will aim to do as much for our readers. However, what we aim to present below are several non-consensus calls for 2025. They may seem … Read more
It was a nasty week for the bond market, with a significant rise in bond yields without this move being triggered by the release of any significant economic data, or at least the economic data that the bond market has in recent memory considered important. Paradoxically, the Australian bond market received very bad news in … Read more
You must admire the skill with which Wall Street and the bond market twist a narrative on adverse economic data to spin anything as good news. Seemingly, everything guides the Federal Reserve to cutting rates. Friday night’s nonfarm payrolls once again confirmed that the US economy remains robust and in no need of stimulus at … Read more
Last week’s monthly CPI data confirmed what we have been saying for some time and that is that the inflation dragon is a long way from dead in Australia and/or the inflation genie is still out of the bottle and about to destroy the village. This forced the last of the major banks ANZ, Westpac, … Read more
Will global markets continue to rally in 2025? Below we provide some thoughts on how things could play out. Easing monetary policy cycle should benefit non-U.S. stocksThe recently published December edition of the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey highlighted that there is an expectation that the U.S. election results will now see a slower … Read more