Trump euphoriaSince the election of U.S. President Donald Trump for a second term, investors have been busy deliberating what it means for the global economy and financial markets. So far markets have reacted very positively to President Trump’s decisive win against Kamala Haris, with Republicans gaining control of both houses. President Trump campaigned hard on … Read more
The IMF has stated on many occasions over the past three years that highly indebted countries are at risk of a prolonged period of economic stagnation or a depression, but has never actually named the US, Japan, or France. This is not to say that these countries are not as vulnerable as Spain, Italy, or … Read more
The audacity of Governor Powell, who has now cut rates by 50 basis points just prior to the election and 25 basis points as promised just after the election, was laid bare (naked really) last week when he said that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates. “The economy is not sending any … Read more
Last week the US electorate decided between the Republican America first policies as represented by Trump during the campaign and continuation of Bidenomics under Harris. It is worth noting that Bidenomics was still the Obama economic approach which was based on rewiring the US economy so that it had a much larger government sector and … Read more
Harris Lost and Trump won. We will allow the political analysts to dissect the rest. However, the emotionless, apolitical, atheist data was right again (well…approx. 82% of the time it’s 100% right!). On occasions the S&P 500 index fell the month before the U.S. election (i.e. October), the incumbent party lost the White House on most … Read more
Firstly, apologies for not including the risks of a UK budget related bond market meltdown in our list of geopolitical risks a few weeks ago. This risk is now a clear and present danger for the bond markets. The UK budget announced last Wednesday represents a seminal shift in the way a Western democratic … Read more
The Australian economy, like the global economy to be fair, is muddling through. That is, despite significant increases in interest rates, higher cost of living and doing business, economic growth remains positive. Although GDP growth continues to moderate. A key part of the Australian economy is the consumer and below we discuss some indicators related … Read more
In the absence of any significant economic data the market last week was consumed by Trump economic policy conspiracies. This led the equity market to fresh highs and to a significant surge in bond yields. It is hard to fathom the markets economic logic with its Trump economic policy assumptions. He won’t get anything done … Read more
Over the past 2 years we have been very much focused on expanding our global network of investors, economists, analysts and industry experts we regularly touch base with so that we can drive better portfolio outcomes for our clients. Whilst we conduct our own independent research across all asset classes and investments, it’s important we … Read more
After a long hiatus, the EFG podcast returns as Mike and Sam catch up to talk through the big issues and talking points in financial markets right now and what to keep an eye on. Here’s a quick summary of what they talked about. Current Market ConditionsThe stock markets, especially in Australia and the U.S., … Read more