We were surprised last week by the reaction to the slightly better than expected US CPI monthly report. In aggregate the headline month-on-month CPI rate was flat versus a 0.1% forecast and core inflation was 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. A great deal of care needs to be taken when interpreting monthly data because inflation readings … Read more
The week ahead may prove pivotal for the global bond markets. The US has roughly $33 trillion in Federal debt, at an average interest rate of roughly 3%, which generates around $1 trillion per year of interest cost. Based on current expectations, the Congressional Budget Office guesses that the government deficit from 2024 through 2033 … Read more
Interest Rates The markets were caught by a triple surprise last week. Firstly, the Treasury opted to issue less 10 and 30-year bonds and more 3-5 year bonds for its refinancing, then the ISM manufacturing and services PMI data was weaker, and finally the non-farm payrolls were weaker than expected. This brought about what looks … Read more
Last week we travelled to Hong Kong to attend a global investment conference and conducted several meetings with – Hong Kong listed companies (some of the largest companies with not only exposure to Chinese markets but assets in developed markets), buy side investors, strategists, fund managers and bottom up equity analysts. These trips support our … Read more
The markets, at both a bond and currency level, are now forecasting that the RBA has fallen behind the curve with its interest rate moves. The RBA is now expected to increase rates by 25bps at the November meeting and then remain on hold until the February meeting, when a new RBA interest setting board … Read more
The common theme of market strategists over the past 6 months – basically since the Credit Suisse and Silicon Valley Bank events in March – is that the global economy will face a credit crunch that causes a recession. Even though this has been subsequently and self-evidently shown to be an incorrect forecast, the same … Read more
Bond yields rose last week as the market absorbed the Central Banks determination to keep short term rates higher for longer in an attempt to kill the inflation impulse. Markets believe in the short term that Central Banks will raise interest rates once or twice more but are certainly convinced, in the longer term, that … Read more
The advantages of investing in ASX mining companies Investing in ASX listed mining companies has long been a lucrative opportunity for both domestic and international investors. With a rich abundance of mineral resources, a stable political climate, advanced infrastructure, and a skilled workforce, Australia offers several compelling reasons to consider investing in its mining industry. … Read more
It is almost impossible to not notice that recently (or every so often before then), the recurring theme of “cash rate increase” or “RBA rate rises” are all headlining Australian business and economic news. While it might be hard to digest how all of this impacts the Australian economy, we have put together a summary … Read more
The Australian stock market has been experiencing steady growth over the past few years, making it an attractive option for investors looking for a stable and profitable investment opportunity. Compared to the American stock market, the Australian stock market has several advantages that make it an excellent option for investors looking for a diversified portfolio. … Read more
